With two open seats and several freshmen on the ballot, Indiana will be prime political territory in 2012. Two incumbents are seeking statewide office, but don't expect that to shift much control as Democrats attempt to win back the House. Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly's Senate bid opens up his 2nd district seat, but given the changes to the district's boundaries, Republicans are likely to add a member to their delegation. Rep. Mike Pence's (R) gubernatorial bid translates to a competitive GOP primary and little else in his heavily Republican district. The four freshman Republicans swept into power in the 2010 wave appear largely safe as they seek second terms.

 

 

Even Donnelly did not want to run for re-election here, which speaks volumes about how much this district was affected by Republican-controlled redistricting. Donnelly opted to run for Senate instead of take a chance on his new district, which Republicans in the state Legislature redrew without several Democratic areas.

The most devastating change for 2nd district Democrats was the loss of Kokomo, a middle-class town with heavy union membership and reliable Donnelly voters. Kokomo is now split between the heavily Republican 4th and 5th districts.

 

The new district also lost part of LaPorte County, including Democratic Michigan City, to the 1st district. Meanwhile, the district picked up the GOP-heavy Elkhart County.

 

This seat is not unwinnable for Democrats, but it's not exactly prime competitive territory, either. It's definitely not the most competitive district in the state anymore. Donnelly would have been Democrats' best candidate in the 2nd district, and now the party is left searching for someone to give it a shot.

 

The new district also presents a prime opportunity for Donnelly's 2010 competitor, former state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R), whose base south of South Bend is now the 2nd's population center. Walorski, who served in the state House with many of the members who drew the new lines, announced she would run again for the seat before the maps were even proposed to the public.

 

It's the first House seat of the cycle that Roll Call Politics has rated as likely to flip to the other party, making it that much more difficult for Democrats to win back the majority in 2012.